It’s that time again when US administrations change and a plethora of foreign-policy pundits post proposals and predictions for the incoming administration. This time around a prominent topic is US-China policy and – in particular – US policy regarding the burgeoning US-China confrontation in the South China Sea.
Here is a spectrum of scenarios for the South China Sea in 2021, ranging from the worst to the best – and including the most likely.
The worst but least likely scenario is war. China and the US are locked in a seminal long-term struggle for dominance in Asia and the